Working Paper: NBER ID: w12169
Authors: Stefano DellaVigna; Ethan Kaplan
Abstract: Does media bias affect voting? We address this question by looking at the entry of Fox News in cable markets and its impact on voting. Between October 1996 and November 2000, the conservative Fox News Channel was introduced in the cable programming of 20 percent of US towns. Fox News availability in 2000 appears to be largely idiosyncratic. Using a data set of voting data for 9,256 towns, we investigate if Republicans gained vote share in towns where Fox News entered the cable market by the year 2000. We find a significant effect of the introduction of Fox News on the vote share in Presidential elections between 1996 and 2000. Republicans gain 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points in the towns which broadcast Fox News. The results are robust to town-level controls, district and county fixed effects, and alternative specifications. We also find a significant effect of Fox News on Senate vote share and on voter turnout. Our estimates imply that Fox News convinced 3 to 8 percent of its viewers to vote Republican. We interpret the results in light of a simple model of voter learning about media bias and about politician quality. The Fox News effect could be a temporary learning effect for rational voters, or a permanent effect for voters subject to non-rational persuasion.
Keywords: Media Bias; Voting; Fox News; Political Behavior
JEL Codes: J0; D0; H0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Introduction of Fox News (Y20) | Republican vote share (D72) |
| Introduction of Fox News (Y20) | Senate vote share (D72) |
| Introduction of Fox News (Y20) | Voter turnout (K16) |
| Fox News convinced viewers to vote Republican (D72) | Republican vote share (D72) |
| Introduction of Fox News (Y20) | Learning effect for rational voters (D72) |
| Introduction of Fox News (Y20) | Nonrational persuasion effect (D91) |