Working Paper: NBER ID: w12011
Authors: J. Bradford DeLong; Konstantin Magin
Abstract: A surprisingly large amount of commentary today marks the beginning of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s from either the Netscape Communications initial public offering of 1995 or Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech of 1996. We believe that this is wrong: we see little sign that the aggregate U.S. stock market was in any way in a significant bubble until 1998 or so.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: G1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Netscape IPO in 1995 (G24) | real returns of 9.3% per year (G12) |
| Greenspan's 1996 speech (E49) | real returns of 8.1% per year (G12) |
| Netscape IPO in 1995 (G24) | dotcom bubble timing (E32) |
| Greenspan's 1996 speech (E49) | dotcom bubble timing (E32) |
| Nasdaq peak in 2000 (N22) | market decline (G10) |
| absence of significant negative fundamental news (G14) | market decline after Nasdaq peak (E32) |