Working Paper: NBER ID: w11987
Authors: John J. Donohue III; Steven D. Levitt
Abstract: Donohue and Levitt (2001) argue that the legalization of abortion in the United States in the 1970s played an important role in explaining the observed decline in crime approximately two decades later. Foote and Goetz (2005) challenge the results presented in one of the tables in that original paper. In this reply, we regretfully acknowledge the omission of state-year interactions in the published version of that table, but show that their inclusion does not alter the qualitative results (or their statistical significance), although it does reduce the magnitude of the estimates. When one uses a more carefully constructed measure of abortion (e.g. one that takes into account cross-state mobility, or doing a better job of matching dates of birth to abortion exposure), however, the evidence in support of the abortion-crime hypothesis is as strong or stronger than suggested in our original work.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: K4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Legalized abortion in the 1970s (J13) | Significant decline in crime rates approximately two decades later (K00) |
| Smaller cohort sizes resulting from legalized abortion (J13) | Lower crime rates (K14) |
| Reduction in the criminal propensity of those born after legalization (K49) | Lower crime rates (K14) |
| Legalized abortion (J13) | Increased estimates of the abortion coefficient (C13) |
| Legalized abortion (J13) | Significant negative impact on crime rates (K42) |