Working Paper: NBER ID: w11953
Authors: Claudia Goldin
Abstract: The modern economic role of women emerged in four phases. The first three were evolutionary; the last was revolutionary. Phase I occurred from the late nineteenth century to the 1920s; Phase II was from 1930 to 1950; Phase III extended from 1950 to the late 1970s; and Phase IV, the "quiet revolution," began in the late 1970s and is still ongoing. Three aspects of women's choices distinguish the evolutionary from the revolutionary phases: horizon, identity, and decision-making. The evolutionary phases are apparent in time-series data on labor force participation. The revolutionary phase is discernible using time-series evidence on women's more predictable attachment to the workplace, greater identity with career, and better ability to make joint decisions with their spouses. Each of these series has a sharp break or inflection point signifying social and economic change. These changes, moreover, coincide by birth cohort or period. The relationship between the development of modern labor economics and the reality of women's changing economic role is explored. The paper concludes by assessing whether the revolution has stalled or is being reversed. Women who graduated college in the early 1980s did not "opt-out,"but recent cohorts are too young to evaluate.
Keywords: Women's Employment; Education; Family Dynamics
JEL Codes: J1; J2; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Educational attainment (I21) | Labor market participation (J29) |
| Marriage timing (J12) | Career trajectories (J62) |
| Societal norms (Z13) | Women's labor market decisions (J29) |
| Shift from static to dynamic decision-making (C69) | Labor force participation (J21) |
| Increased educational attainment (I24) | Long-term commitment to careers (J62) |
| Revolutionary phase (P39) | Predictability in labor force attachment (J29) |
| Revolutionary phase (P39) | Enhanced identity with careers (J62) |
| Revolutionary phase (P39) | Improved decision-making capabilities with spouses (D91) |
| Foundational changes in women's economic roles (F63) | Transformation of women's labor market participation (J29) |