Working Paper: NBER ID: w11857
Authors: Edward L. Glaeser; Bryce A. Ward
Abstract: The division of America into red states and blue states misleadingly suggests that states are split into two camps, but along most dimensions, like political orientation, states are on a continuum. By historical standards, the number of swing states is not particularly low, and America's cultural divisions are not increasing. But despite the flaws of the red state/blue state framework, it does contain two profound truths. First, the heterogeneity of beliefs and attitudes across the United States is enormous and has always been so. Second, political divisions are becoming increasingly religious and cultural. The rise of religious politics is not without precedent, but rather returns us to the pre-New Deal norm. Religious political divisions are so common because religious groups provide politicians the opportunity to send targeted messages that excite their base.
Keywords: Political Geography; Cultural Divisions; Red States; Blue States
JEL Codes: H7
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| share of the labor force in manufacturing in 1920 (J21) | contemporary liberal beliefs (K38) |
| share of the labor force in manufacturing in 1920 (J21) | support for Kerry (K16) |
| share of the population that was foreign-born in 1920 (J11) | contemporary liberal beliefs (K38) |
| share of the population that was foreign-born in 1920 (J11) | support for Kerry (K16) |
| historical legacy of different ethnicities working together at high densities (N93) | blue state culture (H73) |
| share of the labor force in manufacturing in 1920 (J21) | belief that AIDS is a punishment (H84) |