Working Paper: NBER ID: w11681
Authors: Hilary Hoynes; Marianne Page; Ann Stevens
Abstract: Despite robust growth in real per capita GDP over the last three decades, the U.S. poverty rate has changed very little. In an effort to better understand this disconnect, we document and quantify the relationship between poverty and four different factors that may affect poverty and its evolution over time: labor market opportunities, family structure, anti-poverty programs, and immigration. We find that the relationship between the macro-economy and poverty has weakened over time. Nevertheless, changes in labor market opportunities predict changes in the poverty rate rather well. We also find that changes in female labor supply should have reduced poverty, but was counteracted by an increase in the rate of female headship. Changes in the number and composition of immigrants and changes in the generosity of anti-poverty programs seem to have had little effect.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I32; I38; J21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Changes in labor market opportunities (J29) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Unemployment rate (J64) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Increases in women's labor force participation (J21) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Increase in female headship (J12) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Demographic changes (J11) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Government programs aimed at alleviating poverty (H53) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Changes in immigration patterns (F22) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |
| Generosity of antipoverty programs (H53) | Changes in the poverty rate (I32) |