Working Paper: NBER ID: w11620
Authors: Peter Lorentzen; John McMillan; Romain Wacziarg
Abstract: Analyzing a variety of cross-national and sub-national data, we argue that high adult mortality reduces economic growth by shortening time horizons. Higher adult mortality is associated with increased levels of risky behavior, higher fertility, and lower investment in physical and human capital. Furthermore, the feedback effect from economic prosperity to better health care implies that mortality could be the source of a poverty trap. In our regressions, adult mortality explains almost all of Africa's growth tragedy. Our analysis also underscores grim forecasts of the long-run economic costs of the ongoing AIDS epidemic.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I10; J10; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| high adult mortality (I12) | shortsighted behavior (G41) |
| shortsighted behavior (G41) | lower savings and investment (E21) |
| economic prosperity (P17) | better healthcare (I19) |
| better healthcare (I19) | economic growth (O49) |
| high adult mortality (I12) | higher fertility rates (J13) |
| higher fertility rates (J13) | inhibit economic growth (O49) |
| high adult mortality (I12) | economic growth (O49) |
| high adult mortality (I12) | lower investment in physical and human capital (E22) |
| high adult mortality (I12) | economic stagnation in Africa (O55) |