Working Paper: NBER ID: w11565
Authors: Reuven Glick; Alan M. Taylor
Abstract: Conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade. We study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870. Using the gravity model, we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals, controlling for other determinants of trade as well as the possible effects of reverse causality. We find large and persistent impacts of wars on trade, on national income, and on global economic welfare. We also conduct a general equilibrium comparative statics exercise that indicates costs associated with lost trade might be at least as large as the conventionally measured "direct" costs of war, such as lost human capital, as illustrated by case studies of World War I and World War II.
Keywords: war; trade; economic impact; gravity model; bilateral trade
JEL Codes: D74; F02; F10; F14; H56; N40; N70
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| war (H56) | bilateral trade (F10) |
| war (H56) | bilateral trade (5 years later) (F10) |
| war (H56) | bilateral trade (8 years later) (F10) |
| lagged effects of war (H56) | costs of war (H56) |
| war (H56) | trade losses for neutral parties (F10) |