Working Paper: NBER ID: w11384
Authors: Murray Leibbrandt; James Levinsohn; Justin McCrary
Abstract: This paper examines changes in individual real incomes in South Africa between 1995 and 2000. We document substantial declines--on the order of 40%--in real incomes for both men and women. The brunt of the income decline appears to have been shouldered by the young and the non-white. We argue that changes in respondent attributes are insufficient to explain this decline. For most groups, a (conservative) correction for selection into income recipiency explains some, but not all, of the income decline. For other groups, selection is a potential explanation for the income decline. Perhaps the most persuasive explanation of the evidence is substantial economic restructuring of the South African economy in which wages are not bid up to keep pace with price changes due to a differentially slack labor market.
Keywords: income distribution; South Africa; economic restructuring; labor market; real incomes
JEL Codes: F0; O1; O5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic restructuring (L16) | decline in real incomes (E25) |
| Selection into income recipiency (H53) | decline in real incomes (E25) |
| Changes in respondent attributes (C83) | decline in real incomes (E25) |
| Skill-biased technical change (J24) | decline in real incomes (E25) |
| Increased labor supply (J20) | decline in real incomes (E25) |
| Disparities in education quality (I24) | decline in real incomes (E25) |