Working Paper: NBER ID: w11246
Authors: Price V. Fishback; Michael R. Haines; Shawn Kantor
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of New Deal relief programs on infant mortality, noninfant mortality and general fertility rates in major U.S. cities between 1929 and 1940. We estimate the effects using a variety of specifications and techniques for a panel of 114 cities for which data on relief spending during the 1930s were available. The significant rise in relief spending during the New Deal contributed to reductions in infant mortality, suicide rates, and some other causes of death, while contributing to increases in the general fertility rate. Estimates of the relationship between economic activity and death rates suggest that many types of death rates were pro-cyclical, similar to Ruhm's (2000) findings for the modern U.S.. Estimates of the relief costs associated with saving a life (adjusted for inflation) are similar to estimates found in studies of modern social insurance programs.
Keywords: New Deal; relief programs; infant mortality; fertility rates; Great Depression
JEL Codes: I38; J11; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased relief spending (H84) | Lower infant mortality rates (J13) |
| Increased relief spending (H84) | Decrease in suicide rates (I12) |
| Increased relief spending (H84) | Higher fertility rates (J13) |
| Increased relief spending (H84) | Lower non-infant death rates (J13) |