Working Paper: NBER ID: w11176
Authors: Douglas E. Levy; Ellen Meara
Abstract: The Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) between the major tobacco companies and 46 states created an abrupt 45 cent (21%) increase in cigarette prices in November, 1998. Earlier estimates of the elasticity of prenatal smoking implied that the price rise would reduce prenatal cigarette smoking by 7% to 21%. Using birth records on 10 million U.S. births between January 1996 and February 2000, we examined the change in smoking during pregnancy and conditional smoking intensity in response to the MSA. Overall, adjusting for secular trends in smoking, prenatal smoking declined much less than predicted in response to the MSA.
Keywords: prenatal smoking; cigarette prices; Master Settlement Agreement
JEL Codes: I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| MSA (E16) | prenatal smoking participation (J13) |
| MSA (E16) | actual decline in prenatal smoking (I12) |
| MSA (E16) | teenage mothers' smoking participation (J13) |
| price increase (D49) | smoking prevalence (I12) |
| price increase (D49) | teenage mothers' smoking prevalence (J13) |