Working Paper: NBER ID: w11138
Authors: Philip J. Cook; Jan Ostermann; Frank A. Sloan
Abstract: Regression results from a 30-year panel of the state-level data indicate that changes in alcohol-excise taxes cause a reduction in drinking and lower all-cause mortality in the short run. But those results do not fully capture the long-term mortality effects of a permanent change in drinking levels. In particular, since moderate drinking has a protective effect against heart disease in middle age, it is possible that a reduction in per capita drinking will result in some people drinking "too little" and dying sooner than they otherwise would. To explore that possibility, we simulate the effect of a one percent reduction in drinking on all-cause mortality for the age group 35-69, using several alternative assumptions about how the reduction is distributed across this population. We find that the long-term mortality effect of a one percent reduction in drinking is essentially nil.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 1% reduction in drinking (D15) | Negligible long-term mortality effect (J17) |
| Changes in alcohol excise taxes (H29) | Reduction in drinking (L66) |
| Reduction in drinking (L66) | Lower all-cause mortality (I12) |
| 1% increase in alcohol excise taxes (H29) | Significant reduction in per capita alcohol consumption (L66) |