Working Paper: NBER ID: w11125
Authors: Robert W. Fogel
Abstract: At the close of World War II, there were wide-ranging debates about the future of economic developments. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic. Expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation; this topic continued to be debated throughout the post-World War II expansion. Concerns raised during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in less developed countries were contradicted when during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates in third world countries began to decline very rapidly. Predictions that food production would not be able to keep up with population growth have also been proven wrong, as between 1961 and 2000 calories per capita worldwide have increased by 24 percent, despite the doubling of the global population. The extraordinary economic growth in Southeast and East Asia had also been unforeseen by economists.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| post-World War II forecasts of secular stagnation (P17) | actual economic outcomes (employment, growth) (O49) |
| anticipated high levels of unemployment (J64) | did not materialize (actual unemployment rates) (J64) |
| economic growth rates (U.S. and OECD) during the golden age (O51) | were significantly higher than previously expected (Y10) |
| total civilian employment increase (J45) | decrease in unemployment rates (J68) |
| rapid decline in fertility rates in less developed countries (J13) | contradicts earlier fears of population growth outpacing economic growth (O49) |
| food production kept pace with population growth (Q11) | 24% increase in calories per capita worldwide (F62) |
| forecasts of continued economic growth in Southeast Asia (F17) | may have been too conservative (E65) |