Working Paper: NBER ID: w11036
Authors: Sven Wilson; Joseph Burton; Benjamin Howell
Abstract: Using data from Union Army pensioners and from the National Health Interview Surveys, we estimate that work-disability among white males aged 45-64 was 3.5 times as high in the late 19th century than at the end of the 20th century, including a decline and flattening of the age-profile since 1970. We present a descriptive model of disability that can account for a) the secular decline in prevalence; b) changes in slope of the age-profile; and c) periods of increasing prevalence. The high level and relatively flat slope of the historical disability age-profile is consistent with the early onset of chronic conditions and with high mortality associated with a subset of those conditions. We show that many common conditions in the 19th century have been either eliminated, delayed to later ages, or rendered less disabling by treatment innovations and the transformation of the workplace. These improvements have swamped the effect of declining mortality, which put upward pressure on disability prevalence. Given the low rate of mortality prior to age 65, technological changes will likely induce further reductions in work-disability, though recent increases in the prevalence of asthma and obesity may eventually work against this trend.
Keywords: Disability; Work; Chronic Conditions; Health Trends; Aging Population
JEL Codes: I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| medical advancements (I19) | decline in work disability (J14) |
| environmental factors (O44) | decline in work disability (J14) |
| chronic conditions (I12) | decline in work disability (J14) |
| treatment innovations (O35) | chronic conditions (I12) |
| technological changes (O33) | decline in work disability (J14) |
| obesity and asthma trends (I14) | increase in work disability (J28) |
| relative health perceptions (I14) | work disability rates (J14) |