Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide

Working Paper: NBER ID: w11000

Authors: N. Gregory Mankiw; Matthew Weinzierl

Abstract: This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to examine the extent to which a tax cut pays for itself through higher economic growth. The model yields simple expressions for the steady-state feedback effect of a tax cut. The feedback is surprisingly large: for standard parameter values, half of a capital tax cut is self-financing. The paper considers various generalizations of the basic model, including elastic labor supply departures from infinite horizons, and non-neoclassical production settings. It also examines how the steady-state results are modified when one considers the transition path to the steady state.

Keywords: No keywords provided

JEL Codes: E1; H3; H6


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Tax cuts (H29)Higher national income (H59)
Capital income tax cut (H24)Feedback effect (50% self-financing) (H23)
Labor income tax cut (H31)Feedback effect (increase from 0% to 17%) (F62)
Finite horizons for consumers (D15)Reduction in feedback effect (from 50% to 45%) (H23)
Market power (L11)Enhanced self-financing ability of tax cuts (H29)
Positive externalities from capital accumulation (E22)Amplified feedback effects of tax changes (H31)

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