Working Paper: NBER ID: w10835
Authors: Edward L. Glaeser; Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto; Jesse M. Shapiro
Abstract: Party platforms differ sharply from one another, especially on issues with religious content, such as abortion or gay marriage. Religious extremism in the U.S. appears to be strategically targeted to win elections, since party platforms diverge significantly, while policy outcomes like abortion rates are not affected by changes in the governing party. Given the high returns from attracting the median voter, why do vote-maximizing politicians veer off into extremism? In this paper, we find that strategic extremism depends on an important intensive margin where politicians want to induce their core constituents to vote (or make donations) and the ability to target political messages towards those core constituents. Our model predicts that the political relevance of religious issues is highest when around one-half of the voting population attends church regularly. Using data from across the world and within the U.S., we indeed find a non-monotonic relationship between religious extremism and religious attendance.
Keywords: political extremism; religious values; voter turnout; party platforms
JEL Codes: D72; D78; Z12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Religious attendance (Z12) | Political extremism (D72) |
| Political extremism (D72) | Turnout among supporters (D79) |
| Political extremism (D72) | Turnout among opponents (D79) |
| Religious attendance (Z12) | Turnout among supporters (D79) |
| Religious attendance (Z12) | Turnout among opponents (D79) |
| Divergence in party platforms on religious issues (Z12) | Policy outcomes (e.g., abortion rates) (J18) |