Working Paper: NBER ID: w10797
Authors: Stephen Coate; Michael Conlin; Andrea Moro
Abstract: How well does the pivotal-voter model explain voter participation in small-scale elections? This paper explores this question using data from Texas liquor referenda. It first structurally estimates the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the Texas data. It then uses the estimates to evaluate both the within and out-of-sample performance of the model. The analysis shows that the model is capable of predicting turnout in the data fairly well, but tends, on average, to predict closer electoral outcomes than are observed in the data. This difficulty allows the pivotal-voter model to be outperformed by a simple alternative model based on the idea of expressive voting.
Keywords: voter turnout; pivotal voter model; Texas liquor referenda
JEL Codes: D7
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| pivotal voter model parameters (D79) | total turnout (D79) |
| pivotal voter model predictions (D79) | actual electoral outcomes (K16) |
| costs associated with voting (K16) | expected instrumental benefits of voting (K16) |
| perceived probability of being pivotal (D80) | expected instrumental benefits of voting (K16) |
| pivotal voter model (D79) | closeness of elections (K16) |
| expressive voting model (D72) | election outcomes (K16) |