Working Paper: NBER ID: w10765
Authors: Jeremy Greenwood; Ananth Seshadri
Abstract: Growth theory can go a long way toward accounting for phenomena linked with U.S. economic development. Some examples are: \n(i) the secular decline in fertility between 1800 and 1980, \n(ii) the decline in agricultural employment and the rise in skill since 1800, \n(iii) the demise of child labor starting around 1900, \n(iv) the increase in female labor-force participation from 1900 to 1980, \n(v) the baby boom from 1936 to 1972. \nGrowth theory models are presented to address all of these facts. The analysis emphasizes the role of technological progress as a catalyst for economic transformation.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: D1; E1; J1; O3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological progress (O49) | Decline in fertility (J13) |
| Increased productivity (total factor productivity) (O49) | Decline in fertility (J13) |
| Increased real wages (J39) | Increased opportunity cost of raising children (J13) |
| Increased opportunity cost of raising children (J13) | Decline in fertility (J13) |
| Technological progress (O49) | Changes in labor dynamics (J29) |
| Technological progress in agriculture and manufacturing (O49) | Decrease in child labor (J88) |
| Decrease in child labor (J88) | Increase in educational investment in children (I21) |
| Increase in demand for skilled labor (J24) | Fewer children with higher educational investments (I21) |