Working Paper: NBER ID: w10752
Authors: Robert W. Fogel
Abstract: To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income less than 25 percent of that of the United States. Between the mid-1960s and the end of the twentieth century, however, many of the countries of South and Southeast Asia experienced vigorous economic growth, some with growth rates far exceeding the previous growth rates of the industrialized countries. Forecasts that the region's population growth would outstrip its capacity to feed itself, and that its economic growth would falter, proved to be incorrect. Growth rates will probably continue at high levels in Southeast Asia for at least another generation. This forecast is based on 4 factors: the trend toward rising labor force participation rates, the shift from low to high productivity sectors, continued increases in the educational level of the labor force, and other improvements in the quality of output that are at present not accurately measured in national income accounts.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: J11; I12; N3; O10; O53; O57; P52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Labor force participation rate increases (J49) | Economic growth increases (O49) |
| Labor force participation rate increases (J49) | Productivity increases (O49) |
| Labor shifts from agriculture to higher productivity sectors (O49) | Economic growth increases (O49) |
| Labor productivity increases within sectors (O49) | Per capita income growth increases (O49) |
| Increasing educational levels in the labor force (J24) | Productivity increases (O49) |
| Educational gap closure (I24) | Economic growth increases (O49) |
| Improvements in quality of output in services (L15) | Economic growth increases (O49) |