Working Paper: NBER ID: w10736
Authors: Philip J. Cook; Jens Ludwig
Abstract: This paper provides new estimates of the effect of household gun prevalence on homicide rates, and infers the marginal external cost of handgun ownership. The estimates utilize a superior proxy for gun prevalence, the percentage of suicides committed with a gun, which we validate. Using county- and state-level panels for 20 years, we estimate the elasticity of homicide with respect to gun prevalence as between +.1 and +.3. All of the effect of gun prevalence is on gun homicide rates. Under certain reasonable assumptions, the average annual marginal social cost of household gun ownership is in the range $100 to $600.
Keywords: Gun Ownership; Homicide Rates; Social Costs
JEL Codes: H21; I18; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| household gun prevalence (J12) | gun homicide rates (N92) |
| household gun prevalence (J12) | overall homicide rates (J17) |
| household gun prevalence (J12) | likelihood of gun misuse (K42) |
| likelihood of gun misuse (K42) | overall homicide rates (J17) |