Working Paper: NBER ID: w1055
Authors: David T. Ellwood; David A. Wise
Abstract: This paper examines the changing employment patterns for young men and women aged 16 to 24 over the 1970s and pays particular attention to the widening racial differences. Between 1970 and 1980 employment rates for both black men and women in this age range fell roughly 14 points relative to those of whites. Macroeconomic conditions, the reduction in the size of the military, changing schooling patterns,family structure, fertility patterns, and several public policies, are all examined in an attempt to understand the patterns of the seventies.The conclusion reached is that perhaps one-half of the diverging racial employment patterns can be "explained" by the variables we examine. For young men the most important forces appear to be the changing structure of the military, worsening macroeconomic conditions,and increased school enrollment among blacks. For women, the military is less important, of course, but shifts in family structure and fertility are rather important.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Changing military structure (H56) | Youth employment rates (J68) |
| Macroeconomic conditions (E66) | Youth employment rates (J68) |
| Increased school enrollment among blacks (I24) | Youth employment rates (J68) |
| Decline in military service among young white men (H56) | Availability of civilian jobs (J45) |
| Availability of civilian jobs (J45) | Racial employment gap for young men (J79) |
| Macroeconomic conditions (E66) | Racial employment gap for young men (J79) |