Working Paper: NBER ID: w10542
Authors: Sean Nicholson
Abstract: Twenty-five cohorts of medical students were asked in their first and fourth year of school to estimate contemporaneous physician income in six different specialties. The students' income estimation errors varied systematically over time and cross-sectionally by specialty and type of student. The median student underestimated physician income by 15 percent, and the median absolute value of the estimation errors was 26 percent of actual income. Students were 35 percent more accurate when estimating market income in their fourth relative to their first year, which indicates medical students learn a considerable amount before choosing a specialty.
Keywords: medical education; income expectations; physician income; specialty choice
JEL Codes: J24; J44; I11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| first-year students' income estimation errors (D29) | fourth-year students' income estimation errors (C13) |
| first-year students (Y20) | underestimate physician income (J17) |
| fourth-year students (Y40) | improved accuracy of income estimations (C80) |
| medical students' exposure to information during medical school (I23) | students' income estimation errors (C13) |
| systematic misinformation (D83) | incorrect specialty choices (I11) |
| gender, age, and MCAT scores (I24) | accuracy of income estimations (C13) |