Working Paper: NBER ID: w10468
Authors: William N. Goetzmann; Vicente Ponssanz; S. Abraham Ravid
Abstract: There is a growing literature on the differential impact of soft' vs. hard' information on organizational structure and behavior. This study is an attempt to empirically quantify the value of soft information, using a data-base on the market for screenplays. Script quality is difficult to estimate without subjective evaluation. Therefore soft information should be an integral part of the pricing of these intellectual assets. In our empirical analysis, we find that hard information' (reputation) variables as well as soft information' proxies are priced. Screenplays with high soft information content are priced significantly lower than high concept' harder information'- type scripts. We also follow the screenplays to production, and find that buyers seem to be able to forecast the success of a script, paying more for screenplays resulting in more successful films. In other words, high concept' (harder information) screenplays sell for more and result in more successful movies.
Keywords: Soft Information; Screenplay Pricing; Intellectual Property
JEL Codes: G12; L14; J31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| soft information (L86) | screenplay pricing (D49) |
| hard information (L15) | screenplay pricing (D49) |
| screenplay pricing (D49) | film success (L82) |
| ratio of soft to hard information (D80) | screenplay pricing (D49) |