Working Paper: NBER ID: w10373
Authors: Andrew K. Rose
Abstract: Thirty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of the effect. This paper is a quantitative attempt to summarize the current state of debate; meta-analysis is used to combine the disparate estimates. The chief findings are that: a) the hypothesis that there is no effect of currency union on trade can be rejected at standard significance levels; b) the combined estimate implies that a bilateral currency union increase trade by between 30% and 90%; and c) the estimates are heterogeneous and not consistently tied to most features of the studies.
Keywords: currency union; international trade; meta-analysis
JEL Codes: F34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| currency union (F36) | trade (F19) |
| currency union (F36) | trade (variation across studies) (F14) |
| currency union (co-authored studies) (F36) | trade (F19) |
| currency union (euro studies) (F36) | trade (F19) |
| number of observations in studies (C90) | estimates (C13) |