Working Paper: NBER ID: w10143
Authors: John Whalley
Abstract: This paper documents and assesses the significance of the policy changes in China that WTO accession implies in 3 key service categories (banking, insurance, and telecoms), asking whether it is likely they will really be fully implemented in their entirety as undertaken at signature in 2002. While it would seem that China will have extraordinarily open markets for these services by 2007 (and for banking, perhaps in the world), the starting point for implementing these policy changes seems so highly restricted that doubts have been raised about the feasibility of implementing such changes over such a short time even if threats of eventual retaliation from WTO partners speeds things along. WTO members are monitoring the implementation of China's WTO commitments, and following dispute settlement might retaliate in the future were these agreed changes not to be implemented. I discuss what scenarios this liberalization might follow, and ask whether these commitments can really be implemented as undertaken.
Keywords: China; WTO; service sectors; liberalization; banking; insurance; telecommunications
JEL Codes: F0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| China's WTO commitments (F13) | market openings for foreign service providers (L86) |
| removal of discriminatory licenses and conduct barriers (J79) | competitive landscape (L13) |
| banking reforms (G28) | potential GDP gains (E20) |