Working Paper: NBER ID: w0771
Authors: Daniel S. Hamermesh
Abstract: This essay examines the role of economic research in affecting the recommendations of the National Commission of Unemployment Compensation, and the likely impacts of that Commission and economists' research findings on policy. Using a questionnaire addressed to Commission members, I find that most became quite aware of the results of research on the labor- market effects of unemployment insurance, with the degree of recognition proportional to the strength of the consensus among economists on a particular result; that the members had little awareness of the identity of particular economists who had done the research; and that, though the members claimed their recommendations were influenced importantly by research, that influence is difficult to detect in the Commission's Report. Because that Report goes against the tenor of current labor- market policy, its short-run impact will likely be small; and, because the focus of interest in policy will change over time, its long-term influence may not be great. Economic research, though, is shown to have had an immediate impact in three specific cases; and its long-run effect, by conditioning the policy discussion, has been and will likely be substantial.
Keywords: unemployment insurance; economic research; public policy
JEL Codes: J65; H53
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher net replacement rates from unemployment insurance benefits (J65) | Longer spells of unemployment (J65) |
| Distribution of UI benefits (J65) | Stabilization of income for households in lower income deciles (H31) |
| Economic research influences policy decisions (D78) | Recommendations made by the NCUC (F53) |
| Recommendations made by the NCUC (F53) | Disconnect between research and policy outcomes (D78) |