Working Paper: NBER ID: w0703
Authors: Martin Feldstein
Abstract: This paper begins by examining the ways in which pension liabilities are and are not like corporate bonds. Some conceptual issues involved in valuing future pension obligations are then discussed. The second section considers the advantage to firms of fully funding their pension obligations and the reasons why many firms nevertheless choose to have unfunded obligations. The third section then summarizes the results of research on the effect of unfunded pension liabilities on the equity value of firms. The first three sections thus consider the role of pensions at the level of the individual firm. The two sections that follow focus on the current and future role of pensions in the national economy. More specifically, section 4 examines the effect of private pensions on the nation's saving rate, paying special attention to the implication of unfunded pension obligations. The fifth section then discusses the impact of inflation on the private pension system and the likely future for indexed and unindexed private pensions.
Keywords: private pensions; corporate debt; national saving; unfunded liabilities
JEL Codes: G23; H55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Pension liabilities (H55) | Corporate financial structure (G32) |
| Unfunded pension liabilities (H69) | Equity value of firms (G32) |
| Unfunded pension liabilities (H69) | Share prices (G19) |
| Private pensions (H55) | National savings rate (D14) |
| Private pensions induce forced savings (H55) | National savings rate (D14) |