Working Paper: NBER ID: w0648
Authors: John H. Makin
Abstract: This paper develops a theory of international capital flows based upon a monetary-equilibrium, rational-expectation theory of exchanged rate determination extended to include the official intervention and possible sterilization of its effects upon the monetary base that are part of the post-1973 system of limited flexibility of exchange rates. Capital flows are shown to depend only on the current expectation of a future relative excess money supplies once all arbitrage conditions are imposed along with rationality. Empirical testing reveals that U.S. international capital flows respond with persistent, damped oscillations to growth of relative excess money. This phenomenon is a quantity adjustment corollary of '"overshooting" of exchange rates in response to changes in relative excess money supply. Inclusion of a relative interest rate term along with measures of growth of relative excess money supply results in rejection of the hypothesis that such a variable provides any additional explanatory power regarding behavior of U.S. international capital flows.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| relative excess money supplies (E51) | capital flows (F32) |
| growth in relative excess money supplies (E51) | capital flows (F32) |