Working Paper: NBER ID: w0585
Authors: Michael R. Darby
Abstract: This paper continues the investigation of the surprisingly slow and weak international transmission of inflation indicated by the Mark III International Transmission Model. The Mark IV Simulation Model is presented. This is a simplified version of the Mark III Model which retains the transmission channels found significant in the Mark III and is suitable for simulation experiments. Separate versions of the Mark IV model describe the pegged and (dirty) floating exchange regimes. In order to be consistent with the stochastic processes governing policy variables in the sample period, policy experiments involved one percentage point increases in the disturbances of those processes for a single quarter with the behavior thereafter governed by the estimated process. U.S. money shocks were immediately mimicked (in accord with the monetary approach) in Germany but only with a lag (specie-flow mechanism) in the Netherlands. Canada and the U.K. showed only Keynesian absorption transmission. Weaker transmission is generally found under floating exchange rates with a J-curve important in the dynamics. No significant international transmission was found in experiments involving money shocks in the U.K. and Germany and real government spending shocks in the U.S., U.K., and Germany. The money shock experiments indicated short-run money control in U.K. and Germany, although less under pegged than floating rates.
Keywords: International Transmission; Exchange Rates; Monetary Policy; Inflation
JEL Codes: F31; F41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| US monetary shocks (E39) | German monetary conditions (E66) |
| US monetary shocks (E39) | UK monetary conditions (E49) |
| US monetary shocks (E39) | Canadian monetary conditions (N12) |
| US monetary shocks (E39) | Netherlands monetary conditions (E42) |
| US monetary shocks (E39) | real income (D31) |
| US monetary shocks (E39) | price levels (E30) |
| US monetary shocks (E39) | international transmission (F42) |
| US government spending shocks (H56) | foreign economies (F49) |