Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9997
Authors: Abhijit Banerjee; Esther Duflo
Abstract: This paper discusses the two leading views of history and political institutions. For some scholars, institutions are mainly products of historical logic, while for others, accidents, leaders, and decisions have a significant impact. We argue that while there is clear evidence that history matters and has long-term effects, there is not enough data to help us distinguish between the two views. Faced with this uncertainty, what is a social scientist to do? We argue that given the possibility that policy decisions indeed make a difference, it makes sense to assume they do and to try to improve policymaking.
Keywords: determinism; political economy
JEL Codes: N30; O1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical determinants (B15) | political institutions (D02) |
| historical determinants (B15) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| policy interventions (D78) | political institutions (D02) |
| policy interventions (D78) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| colonial institutions (F54) | contemporary economic outcomes (P17) |
| colonial institutions (F54) | social relations (Z13) |
| colonial institutions (F54) | land tenure systems (Q15) |
| colonial institutions (F54) | public good provision (H42) |
| social relations (Z13) | community cohesion (R23) |
| land tenure systems (Q15) | economic performance (P17) |