Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9961
Authors: Stefan Gerlach; Rebecca Stuart
Abstract: In this paper we assemble an annual data set on broad and narrow money, prices, real economic activity and interest rates in Ireland from a variety of sources for the period 1933-2012. We discuss in detail how the data set is constructed and what assumptions we have made in doing so. Furthermore, we perform a VAR analysis to provide some simple empirical evidence on the behaviour of these time series. The results suggest that aggregate supply and inflation shocks play a dominant role in Irish business cycles.
Keywords: business cycles; historical statistics; ireland; long time series; var
JEL Codes: E3; E4; N14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| aggregate supply shocks (E00) | real GDP growth (O49) |
| real GDP growth (O49) | money growth (O42) |
| aggregate supply shocks (E00) | inflation (E31) |
| inflation shocks (E31) | monetary policy tightening (E63) |
| monetary policy tightening (E63) | GDP growth (O49) |
| expansionary monetary policy shock (E49) | interest rates (E43) |
| interest rates (E43) | money growth (O42) |
| interest rates (E43) | real GDP growth (O49) |
| expansionary supply-with-tight policy shock (C54) | GDP growth (O49) |
| expansionary supply-with-tight policy shock (C54) | interest rates (E43) |
| expansionary supply-with-tight policy shock (C54) | money growth (O42) |