Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP990
Authors: Robert E. Baldwin; Jeffrey W. Steagall
Abstract: This paper investigates the economic factors that best explain the decisions of the International Trade Commission in administering the injury provisions of US antidumping, countervailing duty, and safeguard laws during the 1980s. Utilizing the economic data collected by the Commission for each investigation, it attempts to ascertain through regression analysis how strictly the commissioners have interpreted these laws in recent years, in terms of the economic conditions required for finding that an industry has been injured, and for establishing a causal relationship between imports and this injury.
Keywords: trade policy; antidumping duties; countervailing duties; safeguards
JEL Codes: F13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| ratio of total imports in the industry to the consumption of the product (F14) | affirmative decision (D70) |
| percentage change in capacity in the most recent year (E22) | affirmative decision (D70) |
| direction of the two-year percentage change in the quantity of dumped or subsidized imports (F18) | affirmative decision (D70) |
| previous investigations of the same product (L68) | affirmative decision (D70) |
| greater decline in shipments (L87) | affirmative decision in CVD cases (F18) |
| higher employment levels (J68) | affirmative decision in CVD cases (F18) |
| less stringent requirements at the final decision stage (C52) | affirmative decision (D70) |