Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9746
Authors: Carol H. Shiue
Abstract: This paper studies the pre-industrial origins of modern-day fertility decline. The setting is in Anhwei Province, China over the 13th to 19th centuries, a period well before the onset of China?s demographic transition and industrialization. There are four main results. First, we observe non-Malthusian effects in which high income households had relatively fewer children. Second, higher income households had relatively more educated sons, consistent with their greater ability to support major educational investments. Third, those households that invested in education had fewer children, suggesting that households producing educated children were reallocating resources away from child quantity and towards child quality. Fourth, over time, demand for human capital fell significantly. The most plausible reason is the declining returns to educational investments. The findings point to a role for demography in explaining China?s failure to industrialize early on.
Keywords: demographic transition; economic history of China; fertility; human capital
JEL Codes: J11; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher education (I23) | Fewer children (J13) |
| Lower costs of education (I21) | Higher investments in child quality (J13) |
| Higher income households (R20) | Fewer children (J13) |
| Households investing in education (G59) | Fewer children (J13) |
| Educated sons (I24) | Smaller family sizes (J12) |
| Demand for human capital declined over time (J24) | Influencing fertility decisions (J13) |
| Higher status households (D19) | Limit family size (J12) |