Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9573
Authors: Diego Comin; Johannes Rode
Abstract: We estimate the effect of the diffusion of photovoltaic (PV) systems on the fraction of votes obtained by the German Green Party. The logistic diffusion of PV systems offers a new identification strategy. We take first differences and instrument adoption rates (i.e. the first difference in the diffusion level) by lagged diffusion levels. The existing rationales for non-linearities in diffusion, and ubiquity of logistic curves ensure that our instrument is orthogonal to variables that directly affect voting patterns. We find that the diffusion of domestic PV systems caused 25 percent of the increment in green votes between 1998 and 2009.
Keywords: feed-in tariff; PV systems; technology diffusion; voting
JEL Codes: E13; O14; O33; O41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Diffusion of domestic photovoltaic (PV) systems (D39) | Fraction of votes for the German Green Party (D79) |
| Increase in diffusion rate of PV systems (O39) | Increase in fraction of green votes (D79) |
| Lagged diffusion levels (F16) | Adoption rates of PV systems (Q48) |
| Nonlinearity of technology diffusion (O33) | Variation in adoption rates (J12) |
| Variation in adoption rates (J12) | Voting outcomes (D72) |