Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9461
Authors: Jeff Butler; Luigi Guiso; Tullio Jappelli
Abstract: Prior research suggests that those who rely on intuition rather than effortful reasoning when making decisions are less averse to risk and ambiguity. The evidence is largely correlational, however, leaving open the question of the direction of causality. In this paper, we present experimental evidence of causation running from reliance on intuition to risk and ambiguity preferences. We directly manipulate participants? predilection to rely on intuition and find that enhancing reliance on intuition lowers the probability of being ambiguity averse by 30 percentage points and increases risk tolerance by about 30 percent in the experimental sub‐ population where we would a priori expect the manipulation to be successful (males).
Keywords: ambiguity aversion; decision theory; dual systems; intuitive thinking; risk aversion
JEL Codes: D81; D83
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| reliance on intuition (D80) | ambiguity aversion (D81) |
| reliance on intuition (D80) | risk tolerance (G11) |
| high intuition treatment (C45) | reliance on intuition (D80) |
| low intuition treatment (C92) | reliance on intuition (D80) |
| reliance on intuition (D80) | risk and ambiguity preferences (D81) |