Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9449
Authors: James Fenske; Namrata Kala
Abstract: African societies exported more slaves in colder years. Lower temperatures reduced mortality and raised agricultural yields, lowering slave supply costs. Our results help explain African participation in the slave trade, which predicts adverse outcomes today. We use an annual panel of African temperatures and port-level slave exports to show that exports declined when local temperatures were warmer than normal. This result is strongest where African ecosystems are least resilient to climate change. Cold weather shocks at the peak of the slave trade predict lower economic activity today. We support our interpretation using the histories of Whydah, Benguela, and Mozambique.
Keywords: climate; conflict; environment; slave trade
JEL Codes: N57; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Lower temperatures (E39) | Lower slave supply costs (J47) |
| Lower slave supply costs (J47) | Higher African participation in the slave trade (N97) |
| Warmer years (N52) | Higher costs of raiding for slaves (J47) |
| Warmer years (N52) | Lower agricultural productivity (Q11) |
| Warmer years (N52) | Higher slave mortality (J47) |
| Temperature shocks (E32) | Slave export dynamics (F16) |
| Temperature (C29) | Slave exports (J47) |
| Long-term environmental shocks (Q54) | Current economic disparities (F69) |