Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9423
Authors: Jeremy Greenwood; Philipp Kircher; Cezar Santos; Michle Tertilt
Abstract: Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.
Keywords: Bayesian learning; Circumcision; Condoms; Disease transmission; HIV/AIDS; Malawi; Marriage; Policy intervention; Search; Sex markets; STDs
JEL Codes: 055; E0; I1; J12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| interventions promoting condom use or marriage (J12) | increase HIV prevalence (O15) |
| perceived reduced risk from interventions (D91) | engage in riskier sexual behaviors (I12) |
| male circumcision (Y50) | enhance effectiveness of HIV prevention strategies (I14) |
| increased incomes (E25) | enhance effectiveness of HIV prevention strategies (I14) |
| behavioral changes (D91) | lower prevalence rates (I12) |
| interventions promoting condom use or marriage (J12) | engage in riskier sexual behaviors (I12) |