Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9337
Authors: Matteo Cervellati; Uwe Sunde
Abstract: We propose a unified growth theory to investigate the mechanics generating the economic and demographic transition, and the role of mortality differences for comparative development. The framework can replicate the quantitative patterns in historical time series data and in contemporaneous cross-country panel data, including the bi-modal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries. The results suggest that differences in extrinsic mortality might explain a substantial part of the observed differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the worldwide density distribution of the main variables of interest.
Keywords: adult mortality; child mortality; comparative development; development traps; economic and demographic transition; heterogeneous human capital; quantitative analysis; unified growth model
JEL Codes: E10; J10; J13; N30; O10; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| mortality environments (I12) | long-run growth (O49) |
| life expectancy (J17) | education composition (A21) |
| differences in extrinsic mortality (I14) | timing of economic takeoff (N12) |
| lower baseline longevity (D15) | delayed transitions to sustained growth (O41) |