Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9102
Authors: Martin Halla; Alexander F. Wagner; Josef Zweimüller
Abstract: Does the presence of immigrants in one's neighbourhood affect voting for far right-wing parties? We study the case of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) which, under the leadership of Jörg Haider, increased its vote share from less than 5 percent in the early 1980s to 27 percent by the end of the 1990s and continued to attract more than 20 percent of voters in the 2013 national election. We find that the inflow of immigrants into a community has a significant impact on the increase in the community's voting share for the FPÖ, explaining roughly a tenth of the regional variation in vote changes. Our results suggest that voters worry about adverse labor market effects of immigration, as well as about the quality of their neighbourhood. In fact, we find evidence of a negative impact of immigration on "compositional amenities." In communities with larger immigration influx, Austrian children commute longer distances to school, and fewer daycare resources are provided. We do not find evidence that Austrians move out of communities with increasing immigrant presence.
Keywords: immigration; political economy; voting
JEL Codes: J61; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increase in the share of immigrants in a community (J11) | increase in the FPÖ's vote share (D79) |
| low and medium-skilled immigration (K37) | increase in the FPÖ's vote share (D79) |
| high-skilled immigration (J61) | decrease or negligible effect on the FPÖ's vote share (D79) |
| higher unemployment rates (J64) | stronger effect of immigration on FPÖ voting (J69) |
| voters' concerns about labor market competition (F66) | support for the FPÖ (B53) |
| negative impact of immigration on local amenities (K37) | anti-immigrant sentiments among voters (K37) |