Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9093
Authors: Aysegul Sahin; Joseph Song; Giorgio Topa; Giovanni L. Violante
Abstract: We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL, a new database covering the universe of onlineU.S. job advertisements. Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most 1/3 of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate, whereas geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. The share of the rise in unemployment explained by occupational mismatch is increasing in the education level.
Keywords: Great Recession; Mismatch; Unemployment; Vacancies
JEL Codes: E3; J2; J6
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| mismatch (C78) | unemployment (J64) |
| mismatch (C78) | aggregate jobfinding rate (J68) |
| mismatch (C78) | firms' vacancy creation decisions (J23) |
| mismatch (C78) | misallocation of vacancies and job seekers (J68) |
| mismatch (C78) | increase in unemployment rate (F66) |
| mismatch (C78) | impact on college graduates (D29) |