Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9089
Authors: Nicolas Berman; Jos de Sousa; Philippe Martin; Thierry Mayer
Abstract: We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.
Keywords: financial crises; international trade; time-to-ship
JEL Codes: F10; G01; G32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| financial crises (G01) | trade volumes (F10) |
| time-to-ship (C69) | trade volumes (F10) |
| financial crises + time-to-ship (G01) | trade volumes (F10) |
| financial crises + time-to-ship (G01) | exporters raising prices (F14) |
| financial crises + time-to-ship (G01) | exporters decreasing volumes (F14) |
| time-to-ship (C69) | probability of ceasing trade (F17) |
| financial crises + time-to-ship (G01) | sensitivity of trade volumes to financial risks (G15) |