Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP9022
Authors: Hanno Lustig; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Adrien Verdelhan
Abstract: We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to aggregate consumption. We find that US households have a surprising amount of total wealth, most of it human wealth. This wealth is much less risky than stock market wealth. Events in long-term bond markets, not stock markets, drive most total wealth fluctuations. The wealth effect on consumption is small and varies over time with real interest rates.
Keywords: discount rate; equity risk premium; excess return; interest rate risk premium; stock market; stock returns
JEL Codes: E21; G10; G12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| human wealth (O15) | total wealth (D31) |
| real interest rates (E43) | consumption behavior (D10) |
| bond market conditions (E43) | total wealth dynamics (E21) |
| interest rates (E43) | propensity to consume out of total wealth (E21) |