Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8876
Authors: Alan De Bromhead; Barry Eichengreen; Kevin H. O'Rourke
Abstract: We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right-wing anti-system parties in elections in the 1920s and 1930s. We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy. What mattered was not simply growth at the time of the election but cumulative growth performance. But the effect of the Depression on support for right-wing anti-system parties was not equally powerful under all economic, political and social circumstances. It was greatest in countries with relatively short histories of democracy, with existing extremist parties, and with electoral systems that created low hurdles to parliamentary representation. Above all, it was greatest where depressed economic conditions were allowed to persist.
Keywords: Great Depression; Political Extremism; Voting
JEL Codes: D72; N10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic contraction (E32) | Support for right-wing anti-system parties (D72) |
| Cumulative economic performance (O57) | Support for right-wing anti-system parties (D72) |
| Prolonged economic downturn (E32) | Support for right-wing anti-system parties (D72) |
| Short history of democracy (D72) | Support for right-wing anti-system parties (D72) |
| Existing extremist parties (P37) | Support for right-wing anti-system parties (D72) |
| Electoral system structure (K16) | Support for right-wing anti-system parties (D72) |