Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8850
Authors: Timothy J. Besley; Marta Reynal-Querol
Abstract: There is a great deal of interest in the causes and consequences of conflict in Africa, one of the poorest areas of the world where onlymodest economic progess has been made. This paper asks whether post-colonial conflict is, at least in part, a legacy of historical conflict by examining the empirical relationship between conflict in Africa since independence with recorded conflicts in the period 1400 to1700. We find evidence of a legacy of historical conflicts using between- country and within-country evidence. The latter is found by dividing the continent into 120kmm-20km grids and measuring the distance from 91 documented historical conflicts.We also provide evidence that historical conflict is correlated with lower levels of trust, a stronger sense of ethnic identity and a weaker sense of national identity.
Keywords: conflict; identity; trust
JEL Codes: N47; O43; O55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical conflicts (1400-1700) (N40) | postindependence conflict (F54) |
| historical conflicts (D74) | political violence (government repression) (P26) |
| historical conflicts (D74) | lower levels of trust (D80) |
| historical conflicts (D74) | stronger sense of ethnic identity (J15) |
| lower levels of trust (D80) | complications in state cohesion (H77) |
| stronger sense of ethnic identity (J15) | complications in state cohesion (H77) |