Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8808
Authors: Wolfgang Keller; Ben Li; Carol Hua Shiue
Abstract: In this paper, we provide aggregate trends in China?s trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Based on historical benchmarks, we argue that China?s recent gains are not exclusively due to the reforms since 1978. Rather, foreign economic activity can be understood by developments that were set in motion in the 19th century. We turn our focus to Shanghai, currently the world?s largest port. Shanghai began direct trade relations with western nations starting in 1843. By 1853, Shanghai already accounted for more than half of China?s foreign trade. In tracking the levels and growth rates of the city?s net and gross imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and foreign residents over more than a century, we find that Shanghai?s level of bilateral trade today with the United States, the United Kingdom, or Japan, for example, are by no means high given Shanghai?s 19th century experience. This paper argues that a regional approach that embeds national trading destinations within an international trading system provides a meaningful approach to understanding the history of China?s trade.
Keywords: colonialism; foreign direct investment; institutions; international migration; reexports; treaty port
JEL Codes: F10; F22; F23; N65; N70; N95
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Shanghai's historical trade status (N95) | Shanghai's current economic performance (F69) |
| Historical developments initiated in the 19th century (B15) | China's recent trade performance (F14) |
| Historical trade liberalization (F13) | Contemporary trade performance (F19) |
| Shanghai's role as a hub for reexports (F10) | Shanghai's foreign exports (F10) |
| Shanghai's historical trade patterns (N95) | Shanghai's current trade levels (F19) |