Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8799
Authors: Nathan Nunn; Nancy Qian
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of U.S. food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in U.S. wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a country's tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.
Keywords: Civil Conflict; Foreign Aid; Humanitarian Aid
JEL Codes: F34; F5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| US food aid (F35) | incidence of civil conflict (D74) |
| US food aid (F35) | onset of civil conflict (D74) |
| US food aid (F35) | duration of civil conflict (F51) |
| Increase in US food aid by 10% (F35) | increase in incidence of civil conflict (F51) |
| US wheat production (N52) | US food aid (F35) |
| Likelihood of receiving US food aid (F35) | US food aid (F35) |