Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8676
Authors: Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou
Abstract: We examine the long-run consequences of the scramble for Africa among European powers in the late 19th century and uncover the following empirical regularities. First, using information on the spatial distribution of African ethnicities before colonization, we show that borders were arbitrarily drawn. Apart from the land mass and water area of an ethnicity's historical homeland, no other geographic, ecological, historical, and ethnic-specific traits predict which ethnic groups have been partitioned by the national border. Second, using data on the location of civil conflicts after independence, we show that partitioned ethnic groups have suffered significantly more warfare; moreover, partitioned ethnicities have experienced more prolonged and more devastating civil wars. Third, we identify sizeable spillovers; civil conflict spreads from the homeland of partitioned ethnicities to nearby ethnic regions. These results are robust to a rich set of controls at a fine level and the inclusion of country fixed effects and ethnic-family fixed effects. The uncovered evidence thus identifies a sizable causal impact of the scramble for Africa on warfare.
Keywords: Africa; Borders; Conflict; Development; Ethnicities
JEL Codes: N17
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Scramble for Africa (N93) | civil conflict (D74) |
| partitioned ethnic groups (J15) | civil conflict intensity (D74) |
| civil conflict from partitioned ethnicities (D74) | neighboring ethnic regions (R23) |
| partitioned ethnicities (J15) | civil conflict (D74) |