Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8620
Authors: Yuhsiang Lei; Guy Michaels
Abstract: We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery.
Keywords: armed conflict; civil war; natural resources; petroleum; resource curse
JEL Codes: O13; Q33; Q34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Giant oilfield discoveries (L71) | Increase in oil revenues (Q33) |
| Increase in oil revenues (Q33) | Internal armed conflicts (D74) |
| Giant oilfield discoveries (L71) | Internal armed conflicts (D74) |
| Giant oilfield discoveries (L71) | Increase in per capita oil production (O49) |
| Giant oilfield discoveries (L71) | Increase in oil exports (L71) |
| Giant oilfield discoveries (L71) | Increase in incidence of internal armed conflicts in conflict-prone countries (F51) |