Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8516
Authors: Markus Brckner; Evi Pappa
Abstract: The hosting and bidding for the Olympic Games is a natural experiment to test for anticipation effects in macroeconomics. We examine these effects using panel data for 184 countries during the period 1950-2006. We find that hosting the Games generates positive investment, consumption, and output responses already before the hosting of the Games. We also detect significant anticipation effects in countries that bid for the Games. While bidding for the Games has a transitory level effect, hosting the Games has a permanent level effect.
Keywords: Anticipation; Mega Event; Natural Experiment
JEL Codes: E62; E65
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Hosting the Olympic Games (Z28) | Investment (G31) |
| Hosting the Olympic Games (Z28) | Consumption (E21) |
| Hosting the Olympic Games (Z28) | Output (Y10) |
| Bidding for the Olympic Games (D44) | Output Growth (O40) |
| Bidding for the Olympic Games (D44) | Private Investment (G31) |
| Bidding for the Olympic Games (D44) | Consumption (E21) |
| Private Investment (failed bid) (G31) | Private Investment (subsequent years) (F21) |
| Anticipation effects of Olympic Games (Z28) | Economic behavior (D22) |