Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP8456
Authors: Mikhail Chernov; Alexander Gorbenko; Igor Makarov
Abstract: We analyze credit default swap settlement auctions theoretically and evaluate them empirically. In our theoretical analysis, we show that the current auction design may not result in the fair bond price and suggest modifications to the auction design to minimize mispricing. In our empirical study, we find support for our theoretical predictions. We show that an auction undervalues bonds by 10\%, on average, on the day of the auction and link this undervaluation to the number of bonds that are exchanged during the auction. We also document a V-shaped pattern in underpricing during the days surrounding the auction: in the days leading up to the auction, the extent to which bonds are underpriced declines, while after the auction, the extent to which they are underpriced increases, with the smallest underpricing coming on the day of the auction.
Keywords: auctions; credit default swaps; mispricing; open interest; settlement
JEL Codes: D44; G10; G13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| current auction design (D44) | average undervaluation of bonds (G12) |
| strategic bidding (D44) | average undervaluation of bonds (G12) |
| number of bonds exchanged during the auction (D44) | average undervaluation of bonds (G12) |
| days leading up to the auction (D44) | undervaluation of bonds (G12) |
| auction price cap (D44) | underpricing (D49) |
| auction price cap (D44) | overpricing (D49) |